Extrapolating vs Imagining
A lesson from Bill Gates and the movie Blade Runner
When we see new technology, we let our imaginations go wild. To quote Bill Gates "We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction."
We tend to make predictions by extrapolating what we see today, as opposed to thinking of what could come tomorrow.
The movie Blade Runner, an iconic science fiction film from 1982, was set dystopian future Los Angeles of 2019, in which synthetic humans known as replicants work for humans. In the movie, despite the revolutionary technology to create artificial humans, people continue to make good old fashioned payphones. Now in 2019, we see a very different world. We are still thinking about synthetic humans and the visions of AI. However, the more basics of life, such as phone calls, have been revolutionized with smartphones and digital communications.
It is far easier to imagine technology as replacing something we all now, like AI for humans. It is far harder to imagine technology coming up with something new that we have not seen.
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